News Feed

{loadmoduleid 100}

1. AUDUSD corrects lower but keeps bullish bias. The 200 hour MA is eyed as a key barometer now

   The AUDUSD is correcting lower after this week’s break above the May high, but the pair still has work to do if sellers are going to take greater control.

   Fundamentally, Australian CPI helped fuel the earlier move higher this week (on Wednesday). Inflation rose 1.0% for the month  and 3.5% year over year, above the 3.3% annual estimate. The hotter reading supported the Australian dollar and helped push the AUDUSD above the May high going back to May near 0.7200.

   However, the upside momentum stalled today after the price reached a  0.7207. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s more hawkish Jackson Hole speech helped strengthen the US dollar (weaken the AUDUSD), while market expectations for a Fed rate hike increased toward 60%.

   Technically, the move back below 0.7200 was the first crack in the bullish armor. The subsequent break below the 100-hour moving average at 0.7179 tilted the short-term bias more to the downside.

   The next important target now is the rising 200-hour moving average near 0.7150. A break below that level—and staying below—would give sellers more control and open the door for additional corrective selling.

   Even then, sellers would still have work to do. A swing area near 0.7125 would be the next downside target, followed by the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the late-July low near 0.7098. Breaking below those levels would increase the bearish bias and suggest the correction is developing into something more significant.

   Conversely, if buyers can defend the 200-hour moving average and push the price back above the 100-hour moving average, the technical picture would stabilize. A move back above 0.7200 would then be needed to put buyers firmly back in control and reopen the door toward this week’s high at 0.7207.

   PS.  WIth yields moving higher along with the USD, the price of gold is following and down $145 or 3.15%. That is the worst day since June 10 when the price tumbled close to 4.5%.  The AUDUSD will tend to follow the price of commodities and the sharp fall today is helping to contribute to the declines today.   

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

2. USDCAD runs up to swing high from last week and the 100 day MA

   The USDCAD has extended higher, helped by a stronger US dollar and a sharp rise in US yields following Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish comments. The US two-year yield is up 11.5 basis points at 4.347%, reflecting reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing and providing a fundamental catalyst for the USD’s move higher.

   Technically, the low today stalled between the rising 200-hour moving average at 1.38370 and the 100-hour moving average at 1.38599. Holding that support cluster gave buyers the go-ahead to push higher, with the price subsequently breaking above this week’s previous high at 1.38970 - helped of course by the speech from Fed's Warsh.  

   The pair is now extending to new highs for the day and testing the August 18 and August 19 high at 1.39079. Just above that level is the more important 100-day moving average at 1.39140.

   That moving average represents a key barometer for both buyers and sellers. Getting above the 100-day moving average—and staying above it—would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door for additional upside momentum. The next targets would come near the 50% retracement at 1.39268, followed by the swing area between 1.39480 and 1.39663.

   Conversely, if sellers lean against the 100-day moving average, the weekly high at 1.38970 becomes the first support level. A move back below that level would take some of the momentum away from buyers and shift the focus toward the 100-hour moving average at 1.38599 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.38370.

   For now, buyers are making a play. The 100-day moving average at 1.39140 is the next—and most important—test.

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

3. USDJPY jumps above its 100 day MA and makes a break for it.

   The USDJPY has extended higher, breaking above its 100-day moving average at 159.994 and the natural resistance at 160.00. The high price has reached 160.15 as buyers maintain firm control.

   The move has been supported by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell and a sharp rise in U.S. yields. The two-year yield is up nearly 11 basis points at 4.34%, while the 10-year yield is higher by 5.2 basis points at 4.724%. Higher yields are helping to strengthen the dollar against the yen.

   Technically, today’s advance also took the price above two other important resistance levels:

   • The 50% retracement of the decline from the 40-year high of 163.98 at 159.599
   • The August corrective high off the 2026 low at 159.23

   Breaking those levels—and now the 100-day moving average and 160.00—keeps the buyers firmly in control.

   The next upside targets come at:

   • 160.446: July 3 low
   • 160.634: 61.8% retracement of the decline from 163.98
   • 160.864: Corrective high following the initial intervention-led decline

   That creates a concentrated resistance area between 160.446 and 160.864. A break above that cluster would further strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the 2026 high at 163.98.

   For now, the 100-day moving average at 159.994 and the 160.00 level become the key short-term barometer. Stay above, and the buyers remain in control. Move back below, and the breakout would begin to lose some of its technical appeal.

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

4. EURUSD moves to new lows and tests a key cluster of technical levels

   The EURUSD has moved sharply lower as the market digests a more hawkish message from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The probability of a Fed rate hike has climbed to around 60%, up from the low-30% range earlier this week. That repricing has pushed U.S. yields and the dollar higher, sending the EURUSD toward a key cluster of technical support.

   Earlier, the pair found willing sellers below its 100- and 200-hour moving averages. The subsequent break below the 200-day moving average, currently near 1.1630, added to the bearish technical bias and opened the door for the move toward the next downside targets.

   The price is now testing a swing area between 1.15937 and 1.15872. Just below that zone sits the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the July low at 1.15733, along with the rising 100-day moving average near 1.1570. Together, those levels form an important cluster of support.

   This is where buyers need to show up if they are going to slow the decline. Holding the cluster could lead to a corrective rotation back toward 1.16215 and the 200-day moving average at 1.16302. However, buyers would still need to reclaim the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near the 1.1655–1.1660 area to take back more meaningful control.

   Conversely, a sustained break below the 100-day moving average would increase the bearish bias and likely encourage additional selling. The next downside targets would come near 1.15578, followed by the 50% retracement at 1.15356.

   As the dollar moves higher, not coincidentally, yields are moving higher with the two-year now up 10.31 basis points to 4.335%.  The 10 year yield up 5.2 basis points to 4.724%. The major indices are all in negative territory with the NASDAQ 100 down -0.70%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -1.21% and 8 NASDAQ composite is down -0.44%.

   Overall, t's he sellers remain in control, but the EURUSD has reached a technically important decision area. Buyers have a level against which they can lean and define risk. If that support fails, however, the downside door opens further. Be aware. Be prepared.

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

5. European indices close the day with gains.

   As London/European traders had for the exits, the major European indices are closing higher. The gains were led by the France's CAC which rose by 0.98%. That runs in contrast to that indices price action this week. Ironically, that index closed down -0.98% for the week. So the decline was halved in trading here today. A snapshot of the daily indices shows:

   • German DAX: +0.81%
   • France’s CAC 40: +0.98%
   • UK’s FTSE 100: +0.29%
   • Spain’s Ibex: +0.81%
   • Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.67%
   • Euro Stoxx 50: +0.77%

   For the trading week, the major indices finished mixed:

   • German DAX: +1.66%
   • France’s CAC 40: -0.98%
   • UK’s FTSE 100: +0.07%
   • Spain’s Ibex: +0.40%
   • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.10%

   In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields moved higher across the board, led by France and Italy:

   • Germany: 3.280%, +1.3 basis points
   • France: 4.127%, +2.9 basis points
   • UK: 5.069%, +2.9 basis points
   • Spain: 3.732%, +2.5 basis points
   • Italy: 4.102%, +2.5 basis points

   in the US market, the major indices are trading mixed after Fed Warshes speech at Jackson Hole. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, offering no explicit guidance on the next interest-rate decision but making clear that inflation remains the Fed’s predominant concern. He described the economy as resilient and strengthening, with solid consumer spending, strong AI-related business investment, historically low unemployment and financial conditions that are difficult to characterize as restrictive. At the same time, PCE inflation remains well above the Fed’s firm 2% target, and recent encouraging readings have not convinced him that underlying inflation is improving sufficiently. Warsh said the Fed must see inflation moving toward its objective clearly and at an adequate pace, signaling a high bar for near-term easing while stressing that he remains committed to policy discipline rather than any predetermined rate decision. The expectations for a September hike is now near 59%.

   U.S. markets are reacting to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message with a clear rise in Treasury yields and growing pressure on interest-rate-sensitive stocks. Warsh’s emphasis on persistent inflation, resilient growth and relatively easy financial conditions is prompting markets to scale back expectations for near-term rate cuts.

   U.S. stocks are mixed:

   • Dow Jones: 53,689.36, up 115.01 points or 0.21%
   • S&P 500: 7,730.76, virtually unchanged at -0.00%
   • Nasdaq Composite: 26,484.51, down 0.21%
   • Russell 2000: 2,983.32, down 1.03%
   • Nasdaq 100: 29,508.00, down 0.45%

   The Dow is holding up, but technology shares and small-cap stocks are underperforming. Both groups are more sensitive to higher borrowing costs and reduced expectations for Fed easing.

   Treasury yields are higher across the curve:

   • 2-year: 4.3289%, up 9.7 basis points
   • 3-year: 4.3874%, up 9.1 basis points
   • 5-year: 4.4683%, up 7.2 basis points
   • 7-year: 4.5804%, up 5.8 basis points
   • 10-year: 4.712%, up 4.0 basis points
   • 20-year: 5.1983%, up 1.2 basis points
   • 30-year: 5.1962%, up 0.5 basis points

   The larger rise at the front end is flattening the yield curve, reflecting a more hawkish reassessment of near-term Fed policy. The market takeaway is that Warsh has set a high bar for easing: inflation must show clearer and more sustained progress before the Fed is likely to consider lowering rates.

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.