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USDCAD Technical Analysis - Key US data in focus
Fundamental Overview
The USD remains on the backfoot as the support from the more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations got exhausted a couple of weeks ago. The market is now in line with the Fed’s baseline projection of two cuts in 2025 and we will likely need strong US data to price out the remaining rate cuts and give the greenback a boost.
The data for now has been good but not strong enough to make the market to price out the two cuts expected by year-end. The next key data will be the prices paid component in the ISM Services PMI tomorrow, the US Jobless Claims figures on Thursday, the NFP report on Friday and the CPI next week.
On the CAD side, the underlying inflation in Canada has been rising steadily since last December and more recently we got much higher than expected numbers with the Trimmed Mean rate back above 3%.
That triggered a more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations with the market now seeing just one last rate cut in 2025. This week we have the BoC rate decision where the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD is rejecting once again the major upward trendline around the 1.37 handle. This is where the buyers continue to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a pullback into the downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.35 handle next.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, there’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe but the first target for the buyers should be the swing high at 1.3860. That would also be a nice spot for the sellers to step in and position for the break below the major upward trendline with a better risk to reward setup.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a break below the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today, we get the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we have the BoC rate decision, the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Canadian Employment data and the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. -
Gold Technical Analysis – Renewed trade tensions lift the market
Fundamental Overview
In the final part of last week, the trade tensions returned as Trump accused China of violating their agreement. We also saw a general step up in Trump’s hawkish rhetoric on tariffs with the President announcing an increase to 50% on steel tariffs starting tomorrow. Maybe being called TACO made him mad.
In the bigger picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing. But in the short-term the repricing in rate cuts expectations could weigh on gold, so watch out for the economic data, especially the NFP and CPI reports.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that gold broke above the downward trendline and opened the door for a move into new highs. The buyers piled in on the break to target the 3438 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, might want to wait for the price to come into the 3438 level to position for a drop back into the major upward trendline.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the breakout and the stronger bullish momentum. From a risk management perspective, if we get a pullback, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the minor upward trendline to position for a rally into the 3438 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting the 3200 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a nice support zone around the 3330 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the minor upward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today, we get the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
Watch the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. -
EURUSD after run higher earlier today is consolidating
The EURUSD moved higher earlier today and in doing so reached toward a swing area high between 1.1406 and 1.14239. The price traded mostly above the low of that swing area (there was one brief look below the low of the level which was quickly reversed)
The buyers are more in control. The next key target comes at the 1.1479 level which goes back to April 21 and April 22. It would take a move below the 1.14066 level to turn the buyers into sellers.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. -
Crude oil futures and settle at $62.52
WTI crude oil settled at $62.52, up $1.73 or +2.85% on the day. The price traded as high as $63.84 and as low as $61.55 during the session.
Technically, the rally extended into a key swing area between $63.52 and $64.14 (see red numbered circles), but still fell short of the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline from the January high, which comes in at $64.88.
On the downside, support is now eyed at the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which are converging near $61.59 and $61.52, respectively. A break below this support zone would tilt the bias more bearish and potentially open the door for further downside pressure.
Conversely it would take a move above the swing area and the 38.2% retracement to increase the bullish bias. .
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. -
AUDUSD surges higher today and breaks away from key moving average cluster.
The AUDUSD is sharply higher today, up 0.84% on the session, and making a decisive break away from a significant technical confluence of moving averages. The rally has propelled the pair above:
The 100-hour MA at 0.64403
The 200-day MA at 0.6445
The 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6450
That tight MA cluster had previously acted as a magnet for price and a ceiling during consolidation last week, but today’s move marks a clear shift in momentum. The bullish break opened the door for a retest of the key swing area between 0.6493 and 0.6500, which previously capped multiple tops in May (see red numbered points on chart). Sellers leaned against the high of that area and pushed the price back to the downside.
To the downside, traders will now look at recent tops and bottoms including a high and low from today near 0.6470. Below that level and traders would look toward the cluster of moving averages between 0.6440 and 0.6450.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.