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GBPUSD will have the ceiling to define the bias in the new trading week
The GBPUSD is heading into the close trading near the lower end of a well-defined swing-area ceiling between 1.34708 and 1.3488 (see red numbered circles on the chart below). This zone has repeatedly capped upside attempts over the past six or so weeks, making it a key barometer for buyer conviction. Each test has attracted sellers, but the fact that the pair is once again pressing into the lower bound of that range suggests buyers are not backing down. If the price can build momentum and extend above the top of this ceiling area, it would signal a meaningful shift in control, opening the door for a broader upside extension as trapped shorts are forced to cover and momentum traders re-engage.
On the downside, the 100- and 200-day moving averages—clustered between 1.3414 and 1.3424—serve as a critical support zone. This area represents a classic “line in the sand” where buyers have recently leaned to defend the broader bullish bias. A move below that cluster would not only break a key technical floor but also tilt the short-term bias back in favor of the sellers, likely leading to increased downside probing as confidence in the bullish structure erodes.
Bottom line: The battle lines are clearly drawn. Resistance above at 1.34708–1.3488 defines the upside breakout zone, while support below at the 100- and 200-day moving averages defines the risk for buyers. With price squeezed between these levels, the pair is coiling into the close, and the next directional move will likely be driven by weekend headlines and how traders respond in the early hours of Monday trading.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
EURUSD moves to new highs after consumer sentiment falls to record low level
The EURUSD is pushing to a new session high following weaker-than-expected data from the University of Michigan. Sentiment dropped to a fresh record low at 47.6 (vs 52.0 expected), while 1-year inflation expectations jumped sharply to 4.8% from 3.8%. Ongoing tensions tied to the Iran conflict are clearly weighing on consumer confidence and shaping the inflation outlook.
From a technical perspective, the move higher is now testing an important zone. On the 4-hour chart, price is extending into a swing area between 1.1726 and 1.1741. Adding to that importance, the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range comes in at 1.17443, creating a key confluence area.
If buyers can push and hold above that zone, the next upside targets come into focus between 1.1765 and 1.1778—another swing area that could act as the next ceiling.
On the downside, today’s low briefly dipped below the 100-day moving average at 1.1688, but importantly held above the 200-day moving average at 1.1671. Those moving averages remain key barometers for bias. Holding above and rotating higher keeps buyers more in control and tilts the bias to the upside.
Key levels to watch:
- Upside targets: 1.1726–1.1741 → 1.17443 (50% midpoint) → 1.1765–1.1778
- Support/risk: 100-day MA at 1.1688, then 200-day MA at 1.1671
Bottom line: Momentum has shifted back to the upside on weaker sentiment data. Staying above the 100/200-day MAs keeps buyers in control, with a break above 1.1744 opening the door for further gains.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
USDCHF moves stretching away from the 100 day MA. Trades to new lows for the week.
The USDCHF is trading to fresh session lows heading into the weekend, reaching its lowest level since March 24. The downside momentum is gaining traction as the price continues to move further away from the 100-day moving average at 0.7886.
Earlier this week, the pair dipped below that moving average on Wednesday and again yesterday, but sellers struggled to sustain momentum near the 38.2% retracement at 0.7873. That hesitation is no longer evident. Today’s price action has pushed decisively below both the 100-day MA and the 38.2% level, with increased downside momentum.
That shift now redefines those levels—0.7873 to 0.7886—as a clear topside risk zone. As long as the price stays below that area, sellers remain in control and can continue to lean against it as a risk-defining ceiling.
Looking lower, the next downside targets come into focus:
- 0.7834–0.7840: Swing area support (former resistance in early March, turned support after the March 12 breakout)
- 0.78216: 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range
Bottom line: Sellers are making a stronger play as momentum builds below key technical levels. Staying below the 100-day MA keeps the bearish bias intact, with downside targets at 0.7835 and 0.78216.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
The markets - including the USD - are little changed to kickstart the Friday trading
The markets are treading water as the North American session gets underway, with little conviction across the major asset classes ahead of key economic releases. Oil prices are marginally higher—up about $0.25—but the move lacks momentum, reflecting a market still balancing geopolitical uncertainty and most importantly, the opening or not of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the rates market, the yield curve is showing a modest steepening bias, with short-end yields inching lower while longer-dated yields drift slightly higher. That dynamic suggests a market that is not yet ready to fully commit to a policy path, instead waiting for clearer signals from incoming data.
Equities are similarly subdued. The major US indices are hovering near unchanged levels, caught between competing forces of resilient economic data and lingering uncertainty around inflation and central bank policy. There is no strong directional push, reinforcing the idea that traders are in a holding pattern as they await the next catalyst.
In the foreign exchange market, the USD is mixed. The greenback is firmer against the JPY, supported in part by the uptick in longer-term yields, while slipping modestly against the EUR and GBP. However, the moves are relatively contained, underscoring the broader theme of consolidation and indecision across markets.
In the video above, I walk through the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. The focus remains on identifying the bias, defining the key risk levels traders are leaning against, and outlining the upside and downside targets that will shape the next directional move. As always, those technical levels serve as the barometer for buyers and sellers—levels where risk can be defined and where momentum either builds or fades.
Looking ahead, the calendar is front-loaded with important data that could provide that needed catalyst. At 8:30 AM ET, the US CPI report takes center stage. Expectations are for a 0.9% rise in the headline month-over-month figure, a notable jump from the 0.3% increase last month, while core CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% versus 0.2% previously. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is projected at 3.3%, with core at 2.7%. Any deviation from those expectations—especially on the core side—could quickly shift rate expectations and, in turn, drive moves in yields, equities, and the USD.
At the same time, Canada releases its March employment report. Job growth is expected to rebound modestly with a gain of 15.0K following last month’s sharp decline of 83.9K. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up slightly to 6.8% from 6.7%. Traders will also be watching the composition of employment after last month’s notable drop in full-time jobs (-108.4K) contrasted with a rise in part-time positions (+24.5K), a mix that raised some concerns about underlying labor market strength.
Later in the morning, at 10:00 AM ET, US factory orders for February are expected to decline by 0.2% after a 0.1% increase in January. With preliminary durable goods orders already showing a -1.4% drop, the revision and the broader factory orders data will provide additional insight into the health of the manufacturing sector.
Bottom line: Markets are in a wait-and-see mode, with price action subdued across assets. The technical levels in the major currency pairs remain the key guideposts for traders, but it is the upcoming data—particularly CPI—that has the potential to break the current stalemate and set the next directional tone.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
Buyers in the EURUSD push the price to new session highs
The EURUSD is pushing to new session highs, with the move supported by softer oil prices and a modest easing in geopolitical tensions. Headlines out of the Middle East have helped sentiment, after Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu signaled a shift toward diplomacy—directing his cabinet to focus on Hezbollah disarmament and potential normalization talks with Lebanon. This follows a conversation with Donald Trump, who urged restraint in military activity as cease-fire and broader negotiations with Iran continue.
From a technical perspective, the pair has reclaimed a key cluster of levels. Price is now back above the
- 50% midpoint of the move down from the February 10 high at 1.1667,
- 200-day moving average at 1.16718, and the
- 100-day moving average at 1.16862.
Earlier in the US session, the initial break above this zone failed, with price rotating back toward the 200-day MA. However, renewed momentum—driven in part by the shifting geopolitical tone—has pushed the pair back above the cluster.
That area now becomes the risk-defining level. If buyers are to maintain control, the price needs to stay above this confluence of support. Holding above keeps the bullish bias intact; falling back below would tilt the balance back toward the sellers.
On the topside, the next target comes in between 1.17265 and 1.17414. A break above that zone would open the door toward the next swing area between 1.1765 and 1.1778
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.