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GBPUSD backs off after reaching resistance target
The GBPUSD moved higher today after basing earlier in the week within a lower swing area between 1.3360 and 1.3378. The upside momentum accelerated today after the pair pushed above its 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.3416 (blue line on the chart), and found additional buying interest in the early U.S. session.
That strength carried the pair into a higher swing area between 1.3448 and 1.3475, which also contained the 50% midpoint of the range since the May low at 1.3464. The day’s high reached 1.34745, just shy of the top of that zone, but failed to break through convincingly. Since then, the pair has rotated back lower and is now trading below the 1.3448 swing area low.
What next? Buyers showed strength by reclaiming the 100-hour MA and briefly surpassing the 50% midpoint, but failed to sustain gains above it or reach the 200-hour moving average (green line). The failed break above the midpoint at 1.3464 now defines a risk level for sellers, and a target for buyers aiming to reassert control.
On the downside, the 100-hour MA at 1.3416 remains the key short-term support. From the current level near 1.3435, a pullback toward that MA is possible. Buyers will likely lean against that level on the first test, but if it breaks, momentum could shift quickly in favor of sellers, with potential to revisit the 1.3378–1.3360 support zone.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. -
EURUSD moves up to test the 200 hour MA. Also testing key swing area at 1.1663 to 1.1691
EURUSD has moved to the 200 hour MA at 1.1667, and the low of swing area between 1.1663 to 1.1691.
The swing area not only provided support from the end of June into July, but was a key swing area going back to April to November in 2021 (see chart below).
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. -
USDCAD backpedals after failed ceiling break; 200-hour MA retest in focus
The USDCAD is under pressure in trading today after buyers missed their opportunity to hold the breakout above a key ceiling area during yesterday's trade. The high yesterday extended to 1.3773, moving above the 1.37498–1.3759 resistance zone, but failed to sustain the breakout, triggering a reversal lower.
Earlier in the week, the pair had based against support near 1.3667, a level defined by Monday/Tuesday’s lows and a prior swing low from Friday, July 11, reinforcing its importance. The midweek rebound stalled near the 200-hour moving average, but buyers held their ground until the failed upside push. Keep that swing level in mind going forward.
Now, the pair is retesting that same (and higher) 200-hour MA (currently near 1.3699) — a pivotal barometer for both sides. A break below it with momentum and the nearby 38.2% retracement of the July range at 1.3682 would tilt the bias more bearish and shift the focus back toward the 1.3664–1.3669 support zone.
A bounce here, however, keeps the short-term bias neutral-to-positive, with buyers needing to reclaim the 1.3711–1.3715 zone which includes the swing area up to 1.3711 and the 100 hour moving average at 1.37153.
Key levels summary:
Support
1.3699 – 200-hour MA (key intraday barometer)
1.3682 – 38.2% of July range
1.3664–1.36697 – Weekly lows and 50% midpoint
Close Resistance
1.3711–1.3715 – high of the swing area and the 100 hour moving average
Move above the 100 hour moving average and stay above would target 1.3730 (swing low and swing high from earlier today)
1.3749 – 1.3759. Swing area near the extreme high reached yesterday at 1.3773
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USDCHF boxed in: key swing zone and moving averages define the battle lines
The USDCHF pushed higher earlier this week, breaking above the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart (blue line) on Tuesday. Aside from Wednesday’s sharp dip on the "Powell will be fired" headlines, which quickly reversed, the pair has held above that MA support - keeping the buyers in play.
On the topside, the price briefly broke above a swing area between 0.80388 and 0.8055 on Wednesday and again Thursday but stalled just below the 200-bar MA (green line), leaving upside momentum capped. That signalled a neutral bias as traders battle between MA levels.
Today, the pair is trading lower and remainsbut remains in neutral territory, caught between the 100-bar MA near 0.7970 and the 200-bar MA near 0.8067. In between lies a key swing area at 0.7986–0.7994, which is now being tested in early U.S. trading.
What’s next?
A break below 0.7986–0.7994 opens the door toward the 100-bar MA at 0.7970, followed by the weekly low near 0.7944.
Support holding here, with buyers leaning against the zone, keeps the short-term focus on the 0.8017 swing high, with a break above targeting the 0.80388–0.8055 swing zone again.
A move outside the broader 100–200 MA range will likely define the next directional push. Traders are waiting for that shove in either direction.
Key technical levels:
Resistance: Swing area between 0.80388 in 0.8055, 0.8067 (200-bar MA), a
Support: 0.7994–0.7986 (swing area), 0.79699 (100-bar MA), 0.7942- 0.7957 (swing area)
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The USD is lower to start the new trading day and end the week.
The USD is lower versus the major currency pairs. In the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective. Each of those foreign currencies are higher versus the USD (the USD is lower).
Today the market will react to US building permits and housing starts along with the University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index (estimate 61.5 versus 60.7 last month). It is also the last day for Fed members to speak ahead of the quiet period in preparation for the July 30 FOMC rate decision
Speaking of which, late yesterday Fed's Waller spoke and said he still supports a 25bps rate cut in July, citing rising downside risks and weakening labor market conditions. He stressed that the Fed should not wait for job losses to act, warning that delayed easing could require more aggressive cuts later. Waller sees GDP growth near 1% and believes policy should move closer to neutral.
He noted that private hiring is near stall speed, and the labor market is “on the edge.” While tariffs may raise inflation 0.75–1% in the short term, he views them as a temporary shock, with core inflation close to 2% absent the tariff effects. A July cut would give the Fed space to pause for a few meetings, he said.
Waller also said there's uncertainty around the neutral Fed funds rate, and 3% may still reflect loose conditions. He confirmed no contact with the Trump team about a potential Fed Chair role. On QT, he sees limited interest in selling MBS and expects the balance sheet runoff to remain slow. He also said stablecoins are not a threat but introduce useful competition in payments. Lastly, he emphasized that data should guide the pace of future cuts, and there’s “nothing wrong with an insurance cut.”
The US stock indices are little changed but modestly higher. The S&P closed at its 9th record close yesterday. The Nasdaq also closed at a record and it was its 10th for the year.
- Dow industrial average is up 71 points
- S&P index is up 8.39 points
- NASDAQ index is up 15.96 points
Looking at earnings today::
Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) Q2 2025: EPS $1.14 (BEAT; exp. $1.09), Revenue $5.85B (BEAT; exp. $5.72B)
American Express Co (AXP) Q2 2025: EPS $4.08 (BEAT; exp. $3.91), Revenue $17.9B (BEAT; exp. $17.70B)
3M Co (MMM) Q2 2025: EPS $2.16 (BEAT; exp. $2.01), Revenue $6.3B (MISS; exp. $6.08B)
Truist Financial Corp (TFC) Q2 2025: EPS $0.91 (MISS; exp. $0.93), Revenue -- (exp. $5.02B)
After the close yesterday Netflix reported earnings.
- Netflix Inc (NFLX) Q2 2025: EPS $7.19 (BEAT; exp. $7.05),
- Revenue $11.08B (BEAT; exp. $11.04B)
- Q3 Outlook: EPS $6.87 (BEAT; exp. $6.65), Revenue $11.53B (BEAT; exp. $11.25B)
- FY Outlook: Revenue $44.8B–$45.2B (BEAT; exp. $44.43B),
Despite the be, Netflix shares are lower by 2.15%
US rates are lower across the curve. The 30 year yield is back below the 5.00% after moving up to 5.075% this week.
- 2-year yield 3.877%, -3.9 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.960%, -4.5 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.425%, -3.7 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.985%, -2.9 basis points