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1. S&P index pushes for a record close, but stalls on the first look.

   The S&P index moved to a high today of 6092.82. That move took the price of the index above the highest closing level at 6090.27. The all-time high price was not breached at 6099.98.

   Technically speaking the price has gapped on the opening for the 3rd consecutive day.

   • On Friday, the price gapped and broke above its 100 hour moving average (blue line on the chart above). Bullish.
   • On Tuesday as traders returned from the Martin Luther King Day holiday on Monday and the presidential inauguration, the price once again gap. This time the price moved above its 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above).. Bullish
   • Today, the price gapped above a swing high from December 26 at 6049.24 extending toward the high closing level and the all-time high price in the process.

   The price has backed off a bit and trades at 6085.24. That is still higher on the day, but back below the high close.

   What would disappoint the buyers now and perhaps give the buyers additional cause for pause?

   Close risk for traders would now be eyed at the

   • Dec 26 high price at 6049.24 level, followed by the
   • 200 hour moving average of 5971.42 and the
   • 100 hour moving average of 5921.77.

   Move below those levels would be disappointing for the buyers looking for new records to be broken and at the same time give the sellers some added confidence of more downside potential given the double top at all-time high levels. .

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

2. TradeCompass for DAX Futures: Swing and Intraday Opportunities

   TradeCompass: DAX Futures Analysis and Price Prediction

   Current Price OverviewDAX futures are trading at 21,377, positioned just above critical levels that dictate today’s price action:

   • Point of Control (POC): The day's primary volume concentration.
   • VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Reflects market equilibrium.
   • Value Area Low (VAL): The lower boundary of the fair value range.

   The Value Area High (VAH) stands at 21,444, with the 2nd Upper Standard Deviation of VWAP located at 21,475. These levels are key to predicting future price movements for the DAX.

   DAX Futures Bearish Price Prediction

   This analysis prioritizes a short bias, offering high-reward opportunities as the DAX shows relative weakness.

   Key Entry Levels for Short Positions

   1. 21,397: Just below the 21,400 round number, a psychological pivot.
   2. 21,417: Below the 1st Upper Standard Deviation of VWAP, ideal for additional entries.
   3. 21,430: A potential third entry near high-volume nodes (HVNs), offering better trade positioning.
   4. 21,444: If price revisits the VAH, this provides a strong confirmation level for shorts.

   Some readers may encounter this TradeCompass analysis at a time when the price is different from the planned entries, and they might still choose to take the short position based on their assessment of the reward-to-risk ratio. For instance, if the price is at 21,376 or even 21,350, and they notice that the price has moved below the Value Area Low of 21,362, which is also below the POC and the VWAP, they could interpret this as a signal that bears are taking control. Despite not entering at the ideal level, they may find the trade worthwhile if the potential stop-loss, initial profit target, and extended targets still justify the setup.

   Use this as your guide, but always trade at your own risk and discretion

   Short Target Levels

   1. 21,278: Above the VWAP of the open, an early profit-taking zone.
   2. 21,146: Just above yesterday’s VAH, a significant support target.
   3. 21,051: Above yesterday’s VAL, aligning with further bearish momentum.
   4. 20,900–19,900: Deep swing targets for multi-day traders, maximizing the potential of a sustained decline.

   Risk Management:

   • Use 21,485 (just above the breakout threshold) as a stop-loss.
   • Adjust stops to breakeven or secure profits after achieving the initial target at 21,278.

   Bullish Price Prediction for DAX Futures

   Bullish Entry Trigger

   A breakout above 21,485 signals bullish momentum, opening the path toward higher price levels.

   Bullish Target Levels

   1. 21,520: The first significant resistance post-breakout.
   2. 21,594: A secondary level near high-volume areas.
   3. 21,700+: A potential stretch target for traders riding sustained upward momentum.

   Stop-Loss Guidance:

   • Below 21,444 (VAH) to manage risk if momentum reverses.

   DAX Futures Analysis: Supporting Factors

   1. Relative Weakness: The DAX shows signs of lagging performance, previously buoyed by the Nasdaq and stocks like Netflix. This rally could fade, enhancing the bearish case.
   2. Reward-to-Risk Advantage: Short setups currently offer a more attractive risk-reward ratio, especially for swing traders.
   3. Key Price Level at 21,355: If the price sustains below POC, VWAP, and VAL, it confirms bearish dominance.

   AI Price Prediction for FDAX

   Overview:

   The AI analysis for FDAX (German DAX Futures) reveals a bearish outlook. Selling pressure remains dominant, with key metrics such as Delta and Cumulative Delta pointing to continued downside momentum. Buyers have shown limited interest at current levels, suggesting further declines unless strong bullish signals emerge.

   Key Insights:

   1. Persistent Selling Pressure:

      • Negative Delta values dominate, reflecting strong seller activity across the session.
      • Cumulative Delta has steadily declined, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

   2. Volume Dynamics:

      • Sell Volume consistently outpaces Buy Volume, especially during periods of heightened activity.
      • Larger order sizes were observed during intense selling phases, underscoring the aggressive nature of the bearish trend.

   3. Buyer Weakness:

      • Weak Buy Volume indicates limited appetite for accumulation at these price levels.
      • Even during pauses in selling, buyers failed to capitalize and reverse momentum.

   Prediction Score: -6 (Bearish)

   AI Prediction Highlights:

   • The prediction reflects a strong bearish sentiment due to sustained selling pressure, declining Cumulative Delta, and weak buyer engagement.
   • While minor pauses in selling were observed, they lack the volume or Delta support to signal a meaningful reversal.

   Execution Strategy for Trading the DAX

   • Contrarinan short bias!
   • Partial Profit-Taking: Secure gains progressively at outlined targets to mitigate risk.
   • Stop Adjustments: Shift stops to breakeven or higher after hitting early targets for added security.
   • Swing Trade Potential: Hold positions beyond intraday timeframes to capitalize on larger moves.

   While our primary goal is to capture a larger move, we recognize the importance of managing risk effectively. To achieve this, we have pinpointed specific price levels and detailed the rationale behind taking initial partial profits. This approach allows us to secure gains early, reducing exposure and ensuring we stay disciplined even as we aim for bigger targets. By identifying these key levels, we create a structured path to mitigate potential losses while maximizing the opportunity for a significant move.

   Thank you for following along, and we invite you to visit us daily for more insightful TradeCompass ideas and strategies. Always do your own research, trade the DAX at your risk only, and visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

   This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

3. NZDUSD sellers defining the ceiling for the pair between 0.56837 and 0.56917.

   The NZDUSD has not been without it's volatility since the US inauguration on Monday. However, the highs reached on Monday, and Tuesday and again today, stalled near the earlier January highs and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the end of November high. That "ceiling" has gotten stronger. Buyers would need to get and stay above that area (between 0.56837 to 0.56917) to take more control.

   Absent that and the ceiling is a ceiling.

   On the downside, the low from the day at 0.5648 is the next target. Trading to a new low for the day should give the sellers more confidence for a move to the rising 100-hour MA.

   On Tuesday, the low price stalled right at that MA, increasing the levels importance going forward.

   In summary:

   • If bullish the USD, the ceiling/38.2% retracement is your risk. Moving below the cluster of MAs increases your control technically
   • If bearish the USD you would want to see the 38.2% and ceiling broken and stay broken.

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

4. AUDUSD runs into sellers near swing area/retracement target. Seller make a play.

   The AUDUSD has exhibited heightened volatility during the US election period. Despite the fluctuations, buyers have consistently stepped in near the rising 100-hour moving average, maintaining their presence in the market.

   On the flip side, recent highs from Monday and Tuesday encountered resistance from sellers near the 38.2% retracement level at 0.62902 and a swing area between 0.6287 and 0.6301.

   Earlier today, the price tested this swing area again, briefly breaching the 38.2% retracement. However, sellers regained control near the upper boundary of the swing area, pushing the price lower.

   For sellers, remaining below this swing area keeps the bearish momentum intact. For buyers, a move below 0.6274 could signal further downside, targeting 0.6245 and eventually the rising 100-hour moving average. These levels will be pivotal for determining the pair's next direction.

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

5. The USDCAD remains within the "Red Box" that has confined/defined the range since mid-Dec.

   The USDCAD has experienced significant volatility during the election period. Yesterday, the pair reached a new high of 1.4514, the highest level since 2020, while the previous day saw a new low near 1.42899, the lowest since mid-December. These moves briefly broke out of the "Red Box" range, which has defined trading between 1.42899 and 1.4466 since mid-December. However, both extremes quickly reversed, bringing the price back within this range.

   In today's trading, the price tested the lower end of the range during the late European morning session, hitting a low of 1.4300—a psychologically significant level—before bouncing back, aided by weaker CAD sentiment following lower producer price data.

   The rebound has pushed the price toward a key cluster of moving averages, including the 100/200-hour moving averages and the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, spanning 1.4381 to 1.43916. This area serves as a critical pivot point for traders; sellers may defend this zone with stops placed above it, while a break higher would signal increased control for buyers.

   Find out in details, the levels in play in the short video. Be aware. Be prepared.

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.