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What are the key levels in play for the US dollar after the hotter than expected CPI
The US CPI came in higher than expectations and that has stocks lower, yields higher, and the dollar moving to the upside.
Where are the problem areas?
Energy is the immediate problem. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in September, following 3.9% in August. Fuel oil rose 15.3%, following 10.1%. Energy’s June and July declines have given way to substantial increases. Electricity and piped gas were much more contained in September.
Services inflation is becoming firmer. Services excluding energy progressed from +0.2% in July to +0.3% in August and +0.4% in September. That steady acceleration is a concern because it suggests the underlying pressure is broader than volatile energy prices.
Shelter has picked up again. Monthly increases moved from +0.1% in June and July to +0.3% in August and +0.4% in September. Its three-month average remains below the six-month average, so the longer comparison still shows improvement. The latest monthly direction, however, is less encouraging.
Transportation services show a clear reversal. After declines in May and June, prices increased 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.6% over July–September. Energy prices are leading over into all goods that have to be transported that higher energy prices. This isn't rocket science.
Core goods are providing less relief. Their three-month average is roughly three times the six-month average. Used vehicles stand out: +0.4% in July, +0.4% in August, and +0.7% in September. Although still 1.5% cheaper than a year ago, their recent direction is higher.
US Treasury yields are sharply higher following the CPI release, with the biggest increases at the shorter end of the curve as traders price in 2 tightening's between now and January
- 2-year yield: 4.9266%, up 13.36 basis points
- 5-year yield: 5.1257%, up 11.87 basis points
- 10-year yield: 5.3123%, up 9.53 basis points
- 30-year yield: 5.6242%, up 6.12 basis points
The market reaction suggests traders see the inflation data keeping pressure on the Fed to maintain higher rates. The 2-year yield—the most sensitive to Fed policy expectations—is leading the move higher.
With shorter-term yields rising faster than longer-term yields, the curve is flattening. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields has narrowed by about 3.8 basis points, to 38.6 basis points.
US stocks are lower with the NASDAQ composite down -0.60% and the NASDAQ 100 index down -0.75%. The Dow industrial average is higher by 0.14% bucking the trend
In the video above, I focus on the technicals that have impacted 5 of the major currencies verse the US dollar:
- EURUSD
- USDJPY
- GBPUSD
- USDCHF and
- USDCAD
What are the levels in play with regard to the bias, the risks, and the targets for each of those pairs given the fallout from the higher prices for each of those pairs. .I explain and show why the levels are important so you can better understand the roadmap for your trading.
Be aware. Be prepared.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
S&P 500 technical analysis after the CPI selloff
S&P 500 futures: CPI selloff threatens the recovery channel, with a lower support test in view
S&P 500 E-mini futures have turned lower following the US CPI report, with the four-hour chart showing a potentially important deterioration in the short-term technical picture. About half an hour before the US cash market opens, futures are trading near 7,828, having fallen sharply from the 7,870 area. Let's jump into my simple 4h chart S&P 500 futures chart:
Three observations stand out.
1. The earlier breakout was meaningful, but its momentum has faded.
After approximately five attempts, S&P 500 futures finally broke above the descending purple resistance line in early October. That breakout was subsequently tested around October 8-9, when price briefly pierced the former resistance before recovering.
This was constructive behavior. A previously troublesome resistance area appeared to be taking on a supporting role.
However, the subsequent rally stalled below the October 6 high near 7,897, leaving a lower high. The recovery was therefore losing some of its strength even before today's decline.
2. The rising channel has broken, potentially activating a bear flag.
The pitchfork drawn over the latest recovery also functions as a rising price channel. Following the sharp decline from the October 6 high, the subsequent advance took place within this upward-sloping structure.
That creates the possibility of a bear flag: a temporary recovery within a developing downward move.
Today's sharp drop below the channel's lower boundary is an early bearish development. It suggests that the recovery structure is failing, although the current four-hour candle is still developing.
A completed four-hour close beneath the channel, particularly if followed by an unsuccessful attempt to reclaim its lower boundary, would strengthen the bearish interpretation.
3. Could the previous breakout line become the next downside destination?
The descending purple line, previously resistance and subsequently tested as support, now provides another area worth monitoring.
Its projected location is around 7,765-7,780near the current session, although the exact intersection changes with time.
This is not a confirmed downside target. It is a potential support test if the selloff continues.
The interesting question would be whether buyers respond there, defending the earlier breakout, or whether price falls back beneath the purple line and undermines that bullish development.
For the immediate outlook, 7,870-7,880is an important recovery area. A sustained move back above it, accompanied by a reclaim of the broken channel boundary, would weaken the bear-flag interpretation.
The educational takeaway is that a breakout and a subsequent breakdown can both be meaningful without contradicting one another. The earlier breakout showed improving price structure, while today's channel failure suggests that improvement is now being challenged. The next retest and the subsequent follow-through matter more than either line crossing in isolation.
Chart context: CME S&P 500 E-mini futures, four-hour timeframe, October 14, 2026, approximately 30 minutes before the US cash open. The latest candle is developing.
Market volatility continues to be dictated by whether incoming macro prints fundamentally alter the path of central bank monetary policy. As Giuseppe Dellamotta at investingLive.com explained in an essential educational breakdown, identifying the economic data that really moves markets requires traders to look past generic calendar impact labels and focus squarely on current policymaker priorities and what is already priced in.
That exact dynamic played out today with the release of the inflation data; as Adam Button reported, the hot U.S. September CPI print of 3.7% versus 3.6% expected, bolstered by sticky core and supercore gains, immediately drove short-end Treasury yields higher and propelled October Fed rate-hike odds from 21% up to 47%.
Yet even as upbeat commentary from Wall Street executives and resilient corporate earnings suggest macroeconomic endurance, active investors must look under the hood.
As Justin Low broke down, strong U.S. bank earnings don't always mean a healthy broader economy, because record net interest income generated by elevated benchmark rates often masks the severe borrowing strain, deteriorating credit demand, and mounting debt-servicing friction confronting everyday households and regional businesses.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com. -
Morning Kickstart: US CPI ahead as dollar trades mixed and oil climbs
It is CPI day, and the next shove for the dollar, Treasury yields and stocks could arrive at 8:30 AM ET.
In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.
The setup ahead of the release is mixed. The dollar is posting modest changes against most major currencies, with the Australian dollar the clear outperformer. Treasury yields are lower by around 1–2 basis points. Dow and S&P 500 futures are pointing higher, but Nasdaq 100 futures are lower. Meanwhile, crude oil is approaching $96, keeping the energy-inflation story firmly in focus.
US CPI: Energy lifts the headline. What about the core?
The September CPI expectations are:
Headline CPI month over month: +0.6% versus +0.4% last month.
Headline CPI year over year: +3.6% versus +3.4% last month.
Core CPI month over month: +0.2% versus +0.3% last month.
Core CPI year over year: +2.5% versus +2.4% last month.
The headline reading is expected to accelerate as higher energy prices work through the data. The more important question is how much of that pressure is spreading into other goods and services.
Last month, gasoline prices rose 3.9%, accounting for more than one-third of the monthly headline increase. Core inflation also rose 0.3%, with increases in airline fares, lodging and used vehicles.
A 0.2% monthly core reading would show some moderation from August, even if the annual rate rises to 2.5%. Those measures can move in different directions because the year-over-year reading also depends on the number dropping out from a year ago.
My focus will be on the core surprise:
Core at 0.3% or higher: That could push yields higher and support the dollar as traders reassess the risk of further Fed tightening.
Core in line at 0.2%: That could give the Fed more room to wait, particularly if the headline strength is concentrated in energy.
Core at 0.1% or lower: That would be moving in the right direction and could pressure yields and the dollar while providing some relief for stocks.
Thursday’s PPI report at 8:30 AM ET will add another piece to the inflation puzzle. Together, the reports will help economists refine their estimates for PCE and core PCE inflation.
The US dollar is mixed
The largest move is against the Australian dollar, with AUDUSD up 0.39%. Elsewhere, the changes are small ahead of CPI.
From the US dollar’s perspective:
EUR: USD lower by 0.02%; EURUSD at 1.1196.
JPY: USD higher by 0.09%; USDJPY at 158.43.
GBP: USD lower by 0.08%; GBPUSD at 1.3262.
CHF: USD higher by 0.07%; USDCHF at 0.8329.
CAD: USD lower by 0.01%; USDCAD at 1.4215.
AUD: USD lower by 0.39%; AUDUSD at 0.7007.
NZD: USD lower by 0.07%; NZDUSD at 0.5613.
The Australian dollar is the strongest against the greenback, while the yen is the weakest.
Currency ranges: There is room to roam
ATR(22) is the average true range over the last 22 trading days—approximately one month of trading. Comparing today’s high-to-low range with that average gives traders a sense of how much movement has already occurred.
Using the latest session highs and lows:
EURUSD and USDJPY have completed only about 38% and 37% of their respective ATRs. GBPUSD is at 44%. All three major pairs have meaningful room to extend if CPI delivers a surprise.
AUDUSD has already covered the largest share of its normal range at 75%, consistent with its stronger move this morning.
The ATR is context, not a ceiling or a promise that the price must move farther. A strong data surprise can push a pair beyond its average range. If that happens and the price holds near an extreme, it can be a sign that the market is trending.
US stock futures at 8:00 AM ET
Futures are implying:
Dow industrial average: +141 points.
S&P 500: +15 points.
Nasdaq 100: −59 points.
The split leaves the broader market looking firmer while technology shares lag ahead of the inflation release.
US Treasury yields
Yields are modestly lower across the curve:
2-year: 4.7784%, down 1.46 basis points.
5-year: 4.9905%, down 1.65 basis points.
10-year: 5.2022%, down 1.48 basis points.
30-year: 5.5513%, down 1.17 basis points.
The CPI report will test that move. A hotter core reading could reverse the decline, while softer underlying inflation could give bond buyers another reason to push yields lower.
Oil rises. Gold and silver retreat
Crude oil is trading at $95.91, up $1.77 or 1.88%.
InvestingLive’s latest oil coverage highlights unresolved negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and doubts surrounding a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Those supply risks remain part of the backdrop for elevated oil prices.
For today’s CPI report, the distinction matters: higher energy prices can lift headline inflation directly. The core reading helps show whether broader price pressures are becoming more persistent.
Other markets:
Gold: $4,138.74, down $22.40 or 0.54%.
Silver: $58.43, down $0.75 or 1.27%.
Copper: $6.7445, up 0.28%.
Bitcoin: $83,360, up $267 or 0.32%.
China: Factory inflation rises faster than consumer inflation
China’s September CPI rose 0.9% year over year, below the 1.0% forecast and up from 0.8% previously. Producer prices rose 5.0%, above the 4.5% forecast and up from 3.8%. Core consumer inflation held at 1.0%, according to InvestingLive’s China inflation report.
That leaves a familiar question for traders: how much of the increase in production costs can businesses pass on to consumers?
European equities
Most major European indices are higher, with Italy the exception:
Germany’s DAX: +0.50%.
France’s CAC 40: +0.66%.
UK’s FTSE 100: +0.28%.
Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.24%.
Italy’s FTSE MIB: −0.64%.
EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD: Watch the break and the follow-through
The pre-release extremes provide the first reference points for the reaction:
EURUSD: Support at the session low of 1.1188; resistance at 1.1211.
USDJPY: Support at 158.12; resistance at 158.51.
GBPUSD: Support at 1.3245; resistance at 1.3275.
A dollar-positive reaction would put the EURUSD and GBPUSD lows—and the USDJPY high—in focus. A dollar-negative reaction would turn attention toward the EURUSD and GBPUSD highs—and the USDJPY low.
The data will provide the shove. The price action and the technical tools applied to that price action will tell us whether buyers or sellers can keep control.
Watch the nearby swing areas and the 100- and 200-hour moving averages outlined in the video. A break that holds carries more weight than the first spike. If the price breaks an extreme and quickly returns inside the range, that side had its shot—and could not follow through.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
Nasdaq analysis today as price is dancing around yesterday's close (but probably not for long)
Nasdaq futures outlook today: Is the market building a bottom, or preparing for another leg lower?
October 14, 2026 | Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures (December 2026 contract, NQ) | US premarket analysis
Nasdaq futures are showing signs of stabilization following a sharp selloff, but the evidence is not yet sufficient to declare a durable market bottom.Buyers have defended the 30,705 area, while sellers have prevented a sustained recovery above approximately 30,890. For traders and investors, these two developments define an important test of whether the Nasdaq can recover or remains vulnerable to another decline.
The current technical outlook is moderately bearish, with meaningful evidence of buyers attempting to regain control.
Escalating Middle East friction and persistent supply risks continue to dictate sentiment across cross-asset markets. As Giuseppe Dellamotta at investingLive.com highlighted, crude oil extended its gains as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalated, driving WTI CFD contracts toward channel resistance near the $110 mark amid a reported strike on an administrative building at Saudi Aramco's Dhahran complex.
That persistent energy bid is spilling directly into broader risk appetite, with Giuseppe Dellamotta also noting that Ethereum remains under pressure from heavy spot ETF outflows and hawkish macro risks as traders defend the critical $2,360 support and trendline ahead of high-stakes U.S. CPI prints.
Yet even as geopolitical risk premia and higher yields loom over risk assets, growth narratives present a sharply divergent picture globally.
On Wall Street, as Eamonn Sheridan reported, UBS forecasts a blistering 28% Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth driven by AI and cyclicals, arguing that semiconductor demand and accelerating hyperscaler cloud revenue will insulate equities against rising freight and input costs.
Across the Pacific, however, the macro reality is far more subdued; as Justin Low at investingLive.com pointed out, China's September lending surprise masks a deeper slump in credit demand, where a 22% year-to-date contraction in bank loans underscores that households and businesses remain reluctant to leverage up despite Beijing's easing efforts.
With that background music in mind, let's dive into today Nasdaq analysis at investingLive.com...
Nasdaq futures have recovered, but how much damage has been repaired?
The December 2026 Nasdaq-100 futures contract (NQ) declined from approximately 31,289 on October 12 to 30,591 on October 13.
That is a drop of roughly 698 points, or 2.2%, in a relatively short period.
The subsequent rebound reached approximately 30,889, recovering about 43% of that decline. This was a meaningful recovery, but it did not restore the market to its previous higher trading range.
The distinction matters.
A market can recover hundreds of points and still remain in a vulnerable technical position. The size of a rebound is only part of the story. Where the rebound stops, and what buyers can defend afterward, may tell us considerably more.
In this case, two important developments stand out:
Sellers reappeared around 30,889, preventing a stronger recovery.
Buyers subsequently defended the 30,705-30,725 region, without waiting for a return to the more significant historical support around 30,636.
These opposing forces help explain why a one-sided bullish or bearish assessment would be premature.
Why 30,889 is an important Nasdaq resistance level
The recovery toward 30,889 encountered an area associated with significant historical trading activity.
Rather than breaking decisively above that region and establishing a new, higher trading range, Nasdaq futures turned lower.
This suggests that sellers have not yet surrendered control of an important part of the recent decline.
For swing traders, the significance is not whether NQ can briefly trade above 30,889. It is whether buyers can establish a more durable recovery above approximately 30,890.
A sustained recovery above 30,890 would weaken the moderately bearish interpretation.
It would suggest that buyers are becoming more willing to accept higher prices and could open the door to a broader recovery.
By contrast, repeated failures below that level would reinforce the possibility that recent strength represents a temporary rebound within a larger corrective move.
An intermediate resistance region around 30,850-30,862 also deserves attention.
Together, these areas form a useful test of whether buyers are becoming more aggressive or whether rallies continue to encounter selling.
The bullish evidence: Buyers defended 30,705 before a deeper decline
One of the more constructive developments in the October 14 premarket session was the response around 30,705-30,725.
This area attracted buyers before price could revisit the important historical support around 30,636.
Following that defense, Nasdaq futures recovered toward 30,862, although sellers subsequently returned.
Why does this matter?
During a bearish trend, buyers often wait for increasingly lower prices before becoming willing to participate. When buying instead emerges at a higher level, it can be an early indication that demand is improving.
It does not establish a bottom on its own, but it warrants attention.
Consider the difference between three stages of a potential market recovery.
Stage 1: Buyers respond.A sharp decline attracts demand and prices bounce. This has already occurred.
Stage 2: Buyers establish a base.Subsequent declines begin stopping at higher levels, with sellers increasingly unable to drive the market to new lows. There are preliminary indications of this possibility, but it remains unconfirmed.
Stage 3: Buyers overcome resistance.The market begins sustaining trading above previous recovery highs. This is the more convincing evidence that the earlier bearish structure is changing.
The available analysis supports Stage 1, raises the possibility of Stage 2, and does not yet establish Stage 3.
For traders trying to identify a Nasdaq bottom, distinguishing these stages can be more useful than attempting to predict the exact lowest price.
Why 30,636 could become the next important test
The area around 30,636 is another significant historical support reference.
It originally attracted attention because of an older concentration of trading activity dating from October 1. The October 12-13 decline subsequently revisited this area, with the market trading around and below it before recovering.
That makes it a meaningful reference for evaluating the next potential downside move.
If NQ breaks below the recently defended 30,705 region, a return toward 30,636 becomes a more credible scenario.
What happens there would be important.
A successful defense could strengthen the interpretation that Nasdaq futures are establishing a broader trading range or bottoming structure.
A sustained breakdown, particularly if followed by an unsuccessful attempt to recover 30,636, would instead suggest that sellers retain the advantage.
An important educational point:Support is not a guaranteed price floor. Its value is that it gives traders a location where the market's response can help confirm or challenge their expectations.
What happens if Nasdaq futures break below 30,636?
Below that area, the next significant region in the supplied analysis is approximately 30,540-30,567.
Several historical trading references converge there, making it a potentially important area of interest during a renewed decline.
Another historical reference sits around 30,500, associated with earlier trading activity that helped establish a higher market range.
These should be viewed as areas where a market reaction may occur, rather than guaranteed targets or automatic buying opportunities.
The distinction becomes especially relevant in a market that has recently experienced sharp selling.
A trader anticipating a bounce around 30,550, for example, still faces the possibility of a sustained breakdown. The existence of historical support does not remove that risk.
For investors, a decline into this deeper region would signal additional deterioration in the Nasdaq's short-term structure, even if the longer-term investment outlook for individual technology companies remained unchanged.
Three scenarios for Nasdaq traders
Scenario 1: Bearish continuation
NQ loses the 30,705-30,725 buyer-defense zone and fails to recover it. This would increase the relevance of a test of 30,636.
If 30,636 also gives way on a sustained basis, the next regions to monitor become 30,540-30,567 and approximately 30,500.
What weakens this scenario: Buyers reclaim the broken support areas and eventually establish a sustained recovery above 30,890.
Scenario 2: A developing market bottom
Buyers defend the 30,705 region, future pullbacks establish higher lows, and NQ begins recovering the 30,850-30,890 resistance area.
This would suggest that the market is repairing the damage from the preceding decline.
What weakens this scenario: Another sustained breakdown below 30,705, particularly if 30,636 subsequently fails.
Scenario 3: Continued sideways consolidation
Buyers repeatedly defend lower prices while sellers reject attempts to recover the previous trading range.
This could produce a series of reversals that frustrate traders attempting to follow a directional move.
Practical implication: Waiting for a clearer break or a successful retest may offer better information than anticipating every move within the range.
Key Nasdaq futures levels to watch
December 2026 NQ contract | October 14 premarket snapshot | Approximate levels
The hierarchy matters more than treating every point as equally significant.
For traders watching the next several sessions, the most important questions concern the durability of 30,705, the response to a potential test of 30,636, and whether buyers can eventually overcome the resistance around 30,890.
These are NQ futures price references, not interchangeable order levels for the Nasdaq Composite, QQQ ETF or individual technology stocks.
What today's broader market environment adds
The technical uncertainty comes during a period in which technology shares are sensitive to developments in artificial intelligence, semiconductor competition and interest-rate expectations.
Wednesday's premarket reporting indicated that Nasdaq futures were relatively steady while investors assessed developments in chipmakers, bank earnings and upcoming US inflation figures.
The earnings outlook for semiconductor companies, including ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor, was also attracting attention.
This matters because an improving Nasdaq technical structure could be reinforced by stronger participation among its influential technology constituents.Conversely, renewed pressure on major semiconductor and growth stocks could make a sustained recovery more difficult, particularly if accompanied by higher bond yields or renewed concern about inflation.
These are potential influences, not evidence that any particular news event caused the specific price reactions identified in this analysis.
Three practical lessons for swing traders
1. A market bottom is a process, not necessarily a price.
The first rebound after a selloff may be impressive, but evidence of a durable bottom generally becomes stronger when buyers defend higher lows and overcome important resistance.
2. Use technical levels to test an opinion, not defend it indefinitely.
A moderately bearish outlook makes sense while resistance holds and the recovery remains incomplete. But if NQ establishes sustained trading above 30,890, that assessment should be reconsidered.
Similarly, the defense of 30,705 is constructive only for as long as subsequent price behavior supports that interpretation.
3. Trade management can matter more than predicting the next move.
Traders operating with multiple profit objectives may consider reducing exposure when significant targets or support and resistance areas are reached.
After meaningful partial profits, reducing remaining risk or moving a protective stop toward entry can sometimes be appropriate.
However, Nasdaq futures can experience substantial short-term volatility. Moving a stop too aggressively can cause an otherwise valid trade to close prematurely.
Position sizing, stop placement and the intended holding period should be considered together.
What should Nasdaq stock investors take away?
For investors holding technology stocks, semiconductor companies or broader Nasdaq-linked funds, the futures market provides a useful indication of near-term market risk appetite.
However, the importance of a Nasdaq futures support level depends on the investor's horizon.
A day trader might regard a sustained break of 30,705 as an important change requiring an immediate reassessment.
An investor with a six-month or multi-year horizon may instead use the same development to assess broader market conditions while focusing primarily on company earnings, valuations, competitive positioning and longer-term growth prospects.
A weakening index does not imply that every component company has become a poor investment. Equally, a strong index rebound does not establish that every underlying stock is attractively valued.
Bottom line: The Nasdaq has shown resilience, but has not confirmed a bottom
The Nasdaq's recent recovery is significant enough to challenge an overly pessimistic outlook, particularly because buyers defended the 30,705 region without allowing another immediate test of the earlier lows.
Nevertheless, the failure around 30,889 remains an important warning that the bearish structure has not yet been convincingly repaired.
For now, the evidence favors continued caution rather than a definitive bullish reversal call.
Above 30,890, the recovery argument becomes more convincing. Below 30,705, the risk of a renewed decline toward 30,636 increases.
Between those areas, the market may continue testing the patience of both bulls and bears.
The Nasdaq is providing clues about where it may go next, but traders and investors should remain prepared to change their interpretation as those clues evolve.
Educational market analysis, not personalized investment advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com. -
Chart of the day: Gold price faces crucial $4,200 breakout test as US CPI looms
The $4,200 mark has been a key battleground for gold in the past two weeks, and it could once again be part of the trading action today. The precious metal will face up against a big test from the US CPI report, with the inflation numbers having the potential to draw a broader market reaction that could impact gold.
While there are watchful eyes on the figure level, there's a little more to the technical picture than just that.
Looking at the hourly chart:
Gold's advance from Friday last week has stalled around the $4,200 to $4,220 region before steadying itself closer to $4,150-60 levels in the latest pullback. That coincides with the 100-hour (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages, which are now converging around the same area. And for now, buyers have at least managed to put up a bit of a fight here.
The bigger challenge though remains getting back above $4,200 and sustaining a break beyond that. The $4,220 region will be another hurdle before buyers can even contemplate chasing the next leg higher in gold.
And that is where the US CPI report later today could come into play. A softer-than-expected core inflation reading could offer gold some relief, particularly if Treasury yields and the dollar fall in response to that.
Having said that, a brief spike above $4,200 isn't exactly going to be convincing enough, at least to me, to signal that the tide has turned.
The daily chart paints a more cautious picture in that regard. The $4,200-20 region will be the first key hurdle and in getting past that, gold buyers will at least see the chart turn to be more constructive. But the next hurdle isn't that far away, with the 100-day moving average (red line) at $4,249 adding another layer of resistance.
On the flip side, a fall back in gold below $4,150 will then put the focus on the region around $4,100-17 closer to the 78.6 Fib retracement level. A break of that will potentially free up the path for the precious metal to dive lower towards $4,000 next.
Looking to the US CPI report later today, it will be more than just the reaction to the initial price spike on the inflation numbers. For gold, it is whether buyers can actually hold on to any gains and reclaim those overhead levels. Otherwise, we'll be back to talking about the same battleground again in the aftermath or perhaps even debate about how another failed push higher could leave gold vulnerable to a deeper retreat.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.