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1. Mix close for the major US indices

   Fed chair Powell did not signal any tilt toward a September cut. That lower the expectations and ultimately led to stocks giving up earlier gains. The NASDAQ index did rally into the close after falling into negative territory. It is closing higher.

   For the S&P index, it fell modestly and was down for the second consecutive day after closing at record levels. The Dow industrial average fell as did the small-cap Russell 2000.

   • Dow industrial average fell -171.71 points or -0.3% at 44461.28
   • S&P index-7.96 or -0.12% at 6362.90
   • NASDAQ index rose 31.38 points or 0.15% at 21129.67
   • Russell 2000 fell -10.56 points or -0.47% at 2232.39.

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

2. USDCAD rises above the 100 day MA

   The USDCAD has broken above its 100-day moving average for the first time since April, signaling a potential shift in trend. The moving average—currently at 1.38279—had been sloping steadily downward, reflecting the sustained bearish bias of recent months. However, today's breakout marks a key technical milestone.

   The pair is currently trading around 1.3835, having reached a session high of 1.3841. While the 100-day MA is still declining, the fact that price has also broken above a two-month consolidation range strengthens the bullish case.

   Immediate support now comes in at the June high of 1.3797. Holding above this level keeps buyers in control and sustains the breakout narrative. A break back below would risk slipping back into the old range and dull near-term momentum.

   On the topside, the next key target is the May 29 high at 1.3859. A move above that would open the door toward a key swing zone between 1.3928 and 1.3978, defined by multiple highs and lows (see red numbered circles on the chart).

   Summary of key levels:

   • Support: 1.3797 (June high, former range top)

   • Initial resistance: 1.3859 (May 29 high)

   • Upside target zone: 1.3928–1.3978

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

3. GBPUSD falls below the 100 day MA. Technical bias shifts with the break.

   The GBPUSD is extending to a new low today, as bearish pressure intensifies technically. This move is significant because the pair is now trading below its 100-day moving average, currently at 1.33339. That level had acted as a temporary floor yesterday, with buyers stepping in to defend it. However, today's price action shows a shift in sentiment, with sellers gaining more control and pushing the pair lower.

   The break below the 100-day moving average tilts the technical outlook more negatively. As long as price stays below that key moving average, bearish bias remains in play. The next major downside focus is the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 move up—from the low to the high—which comes in at 1.31403.

   That retracement level is further supported by a key swing area between 1.3145 and 1.3202, making it an important target and potential support zone. If sellers can drive through that region, the downside momentum could accelerate. For now, the battle lines are drawn between the 100-day MA above and a wide target of 1.3140–1.3200 below.

   The FOMC will meet later today with the Fed expected to leave rates unchanged. The question is will the Fed shift to a more dovish stance ahead of what will likely be a tick up in inflation due the tariff?

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

4. The USDCAD bias remains more bullish with key resistance looming above

   With the press conference over, the USDCAD is maintaining the price above the high from June at 1.37969. Staying above that level is key in the short-term for keeping the trend higher in full bullish mode.

   Having said that, key resistance from the 100 day moving average at 1.38279, and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the May high at 1.38335 could provide some levels for short-term sellers to lean/take profit. However, a move above both should give buyers even more confidence to push to the upside.

   Looking at the daily chart, the price of the USDCAD is still lower on the year by 560 pips or 3.968%. That is good news for Canadian inflation which is something that BOC's Gov. Macklem spoke to.

   However, if the market is shifting more to a "buy US dollar mode", there is room to roam to the upside. Having said that, getting above the 100 day moving average is paramount for a more bullish technical picture.

   Recall from earlier in the year, the price of the USDCAD (going back to November) was trading mostly in a range after the run up from September 2024. The spikes to the upside were tariff -related, but as time went on, the anxiety from tariffs started to ease and then totally fade with rate outside of the trading range. That led to the rotation to the downside to 2025 low.

   The correction now is still modest, however, we are approaching a key potential turning point for the pair .

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

5. NZDUSD breaks key trendline support — Sellers eye deeper downside levels

   The NZDUSD is making a move below a key trendline support near 0.5914, that has been connecting higher lows since May. This trendline has been a critical technical floor for the pair. A sustained break below this level signals a potential shift in momentum in favor of the sellers – but with work to do.

   The immediate target on the downside comes at 0.5903, which marks the low from July. A further break opens the door toward a swing area between 0.5882 and 0.5892 (highlighted by red numbered circles), which has acted as both support and resistance on multiple occasions. Below that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June rally sits at 0.58769 — a key technical level that would suggest the sellers are gaining stronger control if breached. All those levels are fairly close together suggesting potential for the buyers to lean against the area

   While the pair had been consolidating in a downward-sloping range after peaking in June, this potential breakdown beneath the trendline adds weight to a bearish bias, especially if the price can stay and build below 0.5914.

   Support targets:

   • 0.5903 (July low)

   • 0.5892–0.5882 (swing zone)

   • 0.58769 (38.2% retracement)

   Resistance to watch:

   • 0.5914 (broken trendline now resistance)

   • 0.5667 – 0.5977 (swing area tested at the high price today

   • 0.59838 (falling 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart)

   Traders will be watching for continued downside momentum or a failed break and bounce back above 0.5914 to signal a possible bear trap.

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.