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Crude Oil futures settle up $0.22 at $88.90. Technical bias is to the downside.
Crude oil is closing modestly higher by $0.20 at $88.90, but the final price does not reflect the volatility seen throughout the trading day. Prices traded as high as $92.52 before reversing sharply lower and eventually finding support near session lows at $87.11. That wide trading range highlights the uncertainty currently driving the oil market from the Middle East war with Iran with the last news being in favor of a Memorandum of Understanding. That sent the prices lower.
From a technical perspective, today’s low was important. The decline briefly pushed below the 50% midpoint of the rally from the December 2025 low, which comes in at $87.29. Buyers stepped in near that level, helping the market stabilize after the downside break failed to attract sustained selling momentum. The ability to hold near that retracement level keeps an important support zone intact for now and gives buyers at least a near-term foothold.
However, despite the bounce from the lows, the broader technical picture still favors the sellers. The rebound rally ran into resistance against the falling 100-hour moving average — the blue line on the chart above — where willing sellers leaned once again. That moving average has become an important barometer for short-term direction, and the inability to move back above it keeps downside risks in play.
In addition, the price remains below both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, while the overall chart structure continues to show a pattern of lower highs. At the same time, the market has failed to establish the type of higher-low pattern that would normally signal that buyers are starting to regain stronger control. Those technical factors collectively keep the bias tilted to the downside despite today’s recovery from the lows.
For buyers to regain the upper hand, the market would need to push back above the 100-hour moving average and then extend above the falling 200-hour moving average, currently at $96.56 and moving lower. A move above those key technical levels would force traders to reassess the bearish bias and could trigger a stronger corrective rally. Until that happens, rallies are likely to continue attracting sellers looking to lean against resistance levels with defined risk.
Crude oil is marginally higher but well off the highs for the day and below the $90 level. The high for the day extended to $92.52. The low was at $87.11. Session lows, leave prices tested the 50% midpoint of the move up from the December 2025 low. That level comes in at $87.29. Conversely, the high price stopped near the falling 100 hour moving average – keeping the sellers in control. The moving average comes in at $91.93 currently.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
AUDUSD and NZDUSD as risk-on flows from MOU between US and Iran
The AUDUSD and NZDUSD are leading the move lower in the US dollar today as improving risk sentiment weighs on the greenback. Reports suggesting that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a memorandum of understanding on a cease-fire have helped push crude oil back lower, with WTI now down around $0.35 to $88.32. Treasury yields are also moving lower, with the 10-year yield down about 3 basis points to 4.451%. Meanwhile, U.S. equities are benefiting from the improved tone, with the NASDAQ up 0.72% and the Russell 2000 gaining 0.75%.
Looking at the AUDUSD, the pair has now pushed back above both its 200-hour moving average at 0.71417 and its 100-hour moving average at 0.71508. The move higher has taken the price to a session high of 0.7169, with the pair currently trading near 0.7166. Earlier this week, the pair traded above those moving averages and reached highs near 0.7179 and 0.7182. Those levels are now the next upside targets for buyers ahead of a more important swing area between 0.7193 and 0.7200. Staying above the key moving averages keeps the buyers firmly in control in the short term.
For the NZDUSD, the pair moved back above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages yesterday, but early Asian-Pacific trading saw a retest of those support levels. The low for the day reached 0.5865, right between the two moving averages at the time, before buyers stepped back in aggressively. Since then, the pair has surged to a high of 0.5935, testing the upper end of a swing area between 0.5918 and 0.59355. The battle now is whether buyers can push and sustain the price above 0.59355, which would open the door for a retest of the May highs between 0.5967 and 0.59899, or whether sellers lean against the resistance area and force the pair back below 0.5918, disappointing the late buyers in the process.
In the video above, I go through the technical levels and market dynamics driving both currency pairs in greater detail.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
USD races to the downside. What are the markets saying now technically?
As a memorandum of understanding is said to be close but not done as Iran's supreme leader Khomenei and Pres. Trump have not approved, the markets are still hopeful.
US stocks have moved higher led by the NASDAQ index which is up 0.52%. The S&P index is up 0.43%. The Dow industrial average is up seven points and also on pace for a record close for the day.
Crude oil is up about $0.62 at $89.40, but while off the high price of $92.52.
US yields have moved back into negative territory:
- 2 year yield -1 basis point of 4.022%.
- 5-year yield -2.1 basis points at 4.159%.
- 10 year yield -2.2 basis points at 4.459%
- 30 year yield -2.0 basis points at 4.990%
The benchmark levels of that need to be broken in and stay broken include 4.0% for the two year, 4.5% for the 10 year and 5.0% for the 30 year .
Looking at the USD, the greenback has moved sharply to the downside:
EURUSD: The EURUSD moved back above both the 200-hour moving average at 1.1623 and the 100-hour moving average at 1.1629, shifting the technical bias back to the upside. The break higher has helped push the pair back into a key swing area between 1.1655 and 1.1663 — a zone that previously acted as resistance.
If buyers can extend above 1.1663, the next upside target comes in at the 200-day moving average near 1.1681. Staying above the hourly moving averages keeps the buyers more firmly in control, while a move back below those levels would weaken the bullish momentum.
USDJPY: The USDJPY moved lower and tested the rising 100-hour moving average at 159.19, with the session low reaching 159.19. Also in focus is the 200-hour moving average, currently at 159.09. Buyers leaned against that key support level on Tuesday, helping to keep the broader bullish bias intact.
For sellers to start gaining more control, the price needs to break below — and stay below — the 200-hour moving average. A sustained move under that level would shift the short-term bias more in favor of the downside and open the door toward the next support targets at 158.75 and 158.59.
GBPUSD: GBPUSD buyers have regained control after pushing the price back above the 200-day moving average at 1.3420 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.3433. The momentum has now carried the pair up to the 100-hour moving average at 1.3453 — the next key technical hurdle.
A move above the 100-hour moving average would increase the bullish bias further and have traders targeting the 100-day moving average at 1.3474. Earlier this week, buyers briefly pushed above that key daily moving average, but the breakout failed, leading to a rotation back below the major hourly and daily averages yesterday and earlier today.
Now, traders are trying to flip the bias back to the upside once again, with the cluster of moving averages serving as key barometers for the next move
USDCHF: The USDCHF is trying to navigate through a cluster of key moving averages after the rally stalled just short of the 50% retracement of the move down from the March 31 high to the May low. That midpoint level comes in at 0.7901, and today’s high reached 0.7899 — just two pips shy of the key technical target.
The rejection from that retracement level has sent the pair back lower, with the price now falling below the 200-hour moving average at 0.7861 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.7849. However, sellers have so far stalled just ahead of the critical 100-day moving average at 0.7836, with the session low reaching 0.7842.
If sellers are to take more control, they need to break below — and stay below — that 100-day moving average. Earlier this week, the pair dipped below the level, but sellers could not sustain the momentum. Buyers leaned against the MA on Tuesday, helping to base the pair and fuel the move higher yesterday and into early trading today. That makes the 100-day MA a key barometer for the next directional move.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
USDCAD stretches to topside swing level target and backs off.
The USDCAD has moved lower after trading to its highest level since April 13. The pair peaked at 1.3869 on two separate occasions during the Asian and early European sessions, with the rally stalling right within a key swing area between 1.3868 and 1.3877. That area has attracted willing sellers and could prove to be an important ceiling after the month-long rally that has taken the pair from the May low at 1.35492 to today’s high at 1.3869.
For sellers to take back more control, however, the price still needs to move below the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.3818. A break below that level would then have traders targeting a key cluster of support including the 200-day moving average at 1.3812 and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the March high at 1.38068.
If sellers can push below that support zone, the next key downside target comes in at the rising 200-hour moving average at 1.37887. Breaking below that level would increase the bearish bias and give sellers more technical control. Notably, the pair has not traded below the 200-hour moving average since May 7, when the price was near 1.3628, highlighting just how strong the uptrend has been over the last few weeks.
So the battle lines are clear: sellers are leaning against topside resistance near 1.3870, but to shift the momentum more convincingly to the downside, they still need to force the price below the key support cluster between 1.38068 and 1.3818.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. -
US PCE ahead. The USD is mostly higher on higher oil/higher rates
As the North American session begins, the US dollar is mostly higher versus the major currency pairs (but off the highs). In the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective ahead of the PCE, durable goods, initial jobless claims all released at 8:30 AM .
- Core PCE for the month of April is expected at 3.3% YoY versus 3.2% last month. The MOM Core PCE is expected at 0.3%. Headline is expected at 0.5% MoM and 3.8% YoY
- Initial jobless claims are expected at 211K versus 209K last week
- Durable goods orders are expected at 3.5% for April versus 0.8% last month. Ex transportation but that is 0.5% versus 0.9%. Nondefense capital expenditures Ex air is expected at 0.4% versus 3.4% preliminary
The 2nd revision to the GDP for Q1 will also be released with expectation of 2.0% vs the 1st cut at 2.0%.
To start the day US stocks are modestly lower with the Dow down -65 points.The S&P is down -12 points and the Nasdaq is down -110 points.
Crude oil is trading up $2.90 as the Middle East War peace effort limb along with steps taken backward today.
The overnight headlines suggests the Iran conflict remains highly unstable, with military tensions still elevated despite ongoing negotiations. Iran accused the U.S. of unauthorized naval movements, while Iranian state media said ships were stopped or turned back before recent U.S. attacks near Bandar Abbas. U.S. CENTCOM confirmed overnight Iranian ballistic missile attacks toward Kuwait and incidents near the Strait of Hormuz, while Kuwait said it retains the right to respond to protect its security. There were also reports of explosions and air defense activity in Kuwait tied to missile and drone threats.At the same time, broader regional risks remain elevated. Israel reportedly carried out targeted strikes in Beirut, while Iran’s leadership continued to emphasize national security and strategic priorities domestically.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.