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1. US stocks erase gains for the day

   As Powell speaks on the impact on inflation of tariffs is coming but just don't how much, the stock markets are tiring.

   He also called the policy not that restrictive and that the labor market is not crying out for a rate cut. The Fed Chair is not in any hurry to do anything and this will ultimately tick off Pres. Trump.

   The major US stock indices erased earlier gains, with the NASDAQ Index dipping to an intraday low of 19,489.56. That low came within a single point of its rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 19,488.85. Buyers once again leaned on that technical level—just as they did last Friday—pushing the index back up to 19,540 at last check.

   The repeated support bounce adds to the technical significance of the 100-hour moving average. As long as the price remains above it, the short-term bias stays cautiously bullish. However, a break below could open the door for accelerated downside momentum, with the 200-hour moving average at 19,199.99 (yes, lots of nines) serving as the next key downside target.

   For the S&P index, the price did break below its 100-hour moving average currently at 5987.24. The current price is trading below that level at 5977.96 down -4.8 points or -0.8% on the day. Staying below that level would be more bearish for the NASDAQ index and have traders looking toward its 200 hour moving average at 5926.72. The last time the price traded below its 200 hour moving average was back on April 30.

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

2. The USD moved lower but has reversed those declines

   EURUSD: The pair moved higher after the FOMC rate decision, reflecting a weaker US dollar, and tested the earlier high near 1.15294. The price reached 1.15283—just shy of that earlier high —before rotating back lower to trade around 1.1512 currently. On the downside, the 200-hour moving average at 1.14907 remains a critical support level. A break and sustained move below that level would increase the bearish bias from a technical standpoint and have traders looking toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May low. That level comes in at 1.14164. Conversely, a move above the session high would shift focus toward the 100-hour moving average at 1.15398. Breaking through that level would strengthen the bullish bias going forward. The high price yesterday reached 1.1578. The high price from last week reached 1.16297.

   GBPUSD: The high price for the GBPUSD moved up to test the highs for the day at 1.3475 which was just short of the high price for the day at 1.34755. The price is currently trading at 1.3448 off of that high level. The key level on the downside remains the 200 bar movie average on the four hour chart. That level comes in at 1.34345. The low of a swing level comes in at 1.3423. The low for the weekend the low from May 29 comes in near 1.3413. The price remains within a neutral area below 1.34729 and above the 200 bar movie average on the four hour chart at 1.34345.

   USDJPY: The pair briefly dipped below the near-converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages between 144.41 and 144.48, reaching a session low of 144.32. However, buyers quickly stepped in, and the price has rebounded to 144.68. That puts it just above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May high, located at 144.603.

   Price action around the moving averages and retracement level remains technically neutral, but with the pair now trading above all three key levels, the short-term bias tilts in favor of buyers—as long as the price can hold above those levels.

   USDCAD: The pair moved higher during the North American morning session, briefly trading above the top of a swing area near 1.36923, with the session high reaching 1.36952. After the FOMC rate decision, however, the price reversed lower, falling to a post-decision low of 1.36541.

   The 200-hour moving average, currently at 1.3646, remains a key support level. A break and sustained move below that level would open the door for a test of the day’s low at 1.36337, which also roughly aligns with the low from June 5. A move below that zone would shift focus toward the 100-hour moving average, which currently comes in at 1.36119. On the top side, it would still take a move above 1.36858 and 1.36923 (and staying above) to increase the bullish bias and have traders looking toward the 38.2% retracement of the range since the May high. That level comes in at 1.3722.

   USDCHF: Following the FOMC rate decision, USDCHF initially moved lower, testing support near the 0.8155 swing level and the earlier session low. Buyers stepped in at that area, helping to push the price back higher. The pair is now trading above the 200-hour moving average at 0.81684, giving buyers a short-term advantage.

   However, the recovery remains incomplete. To further strengthen the bullish bias, the price needs to ultimately move above the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline, which comes in at 0.8216. Holding above the 200-hour moving average keeps the door open for more upside, but a break above 0.8216 is needed to truly shift momentum back in favor of buyers.

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

3. AUDUSD trades between key support and ceiling ahead of FOMC

   The AUDUSD has seen volatile two-way price action ahead of today’s FOMC rate decision, but the broader bias remains tilted to the upside. Over the past two weeks, buyers have leaned consistently against the rising 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart (currently near 0.6462), reinforcing it as a critical support zone.

   To the upside, the pair faces a firm ceiling between 0.65357 and 0.65536, marked by a series of swing highs. Multiple failed attempts to break above this area suggest strong selling interest, making it a key barrier to further bullish momentum.

   A move above the ceiling zone would open the door for more sustained gains, while a break back below the 200-bar MA would shift bias more definitively to the downside and increase bearish momentum.

   In between, sits the 100-bar moving average on 4-hour chart at 0.64848. That MA was a base for the price in trading today.

   With the Fed decision looming, traders will be watching closely for any hawkish or dovish tone shift from Chair Powell that could help push AUDUSD out of this tightening range.

   Key Resistance Levels:

   • 0.65357–0.65536: Multi-point swing high ceiling area. Break above is more bullish.

   Key Support Levels:

   • 0.64848: 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart (initial support)

   • 0.64625: Rising 200-bar MA – key support for current bullish bias

   • 0.64072: Prior swing low; move below here would strengthen bearish case

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

4. USDCAD moves back to highs for the day

   The USDCAD has moved higher, supported in part by weaker oil prices, and is now retesting a key swing area between 1.36058 and 1.36923. Earlier in the session, the pair reached a high near the top of that range but failed to break through, triggering a rotation to the downside.

   That pullback took the price down through the 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart above) at 1.36456 and continued lower toward the underside of a broken trendline and swing level at 1.36337. At that level, support buyers stepped in, and the price began to stabilize, basing around the 200-hour moving average before rebounding back to the upside over the last hour or so.

   The key question now is whether buyers can sustain momentum and break through the 1.36923 resistance ceiling. If they do, the next upside target becomes the 38.2% retracement of the May high to June low, which sits at 1.37221. A move toward that level would signal stronger bullish intent and a possible shift in medium-term sentiment.

   Conversely, holding resistance and the low and high support levels are further defined waiting for the next shove from buyers or sellers

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

5. USDCAD battles at key pivot zone ahead of Fed decision

   The USDCAD surged higher on Tuesday, breaking above its 200-hour moving average (green line) with momentum and a downward sloping trend line at the same level. However, buyers ran into firm resistance near the swing area between 1.3685 and 1.3692, a zone that stalled the fall, and capped rallies on multiple occasions in May and early June. The rally also ultimately stalled well short of the 38.2% retracement level from the May high, which comes in at 1.3722. The high-priced history reached 1.36926.

   Today, buyers turned to sellers, and the pair has rotated back lower, with support forming near the prior trendline break and just below the 200 moving average (green line), currently at 1.36455. Price action held this level on the pullback, keeping the short-term bias in balance with support at 1.36337 and close resistance near the 200 hour moving average at 1.36455 up to 1.36505.

   That area between 1.36455 and 1.36505 now stands as a key pivot. A move above would re-open the door toward the 1.3685–1.3692 resistance zone and possibly the 38.2% retracement at 1.3722.

   On the flip side, a break back below the underside of the broken trendline at 1.3637 would open the door for a retest of the 100-hour MA at 1.36103

   With the Fed decision later today, traders will be watching whether USD strength can reassert itself—or if the resistance ceiling continues to hold firm.

   Key levels to watch:

   • Support:

     • 1.36337 (underside of the broken trendline)

     • 1.3610 (100-hour MA)

   • Resistance:

     • 1.36455 -1.3650 (200-hour MA and swing level)

     • 1.3685–1.3692 (swing zone)

     • 1.3722 (38.2% retracement of May high to June low)

   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.