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NZDUSD is back up retesting the lows from last week
The NZDUSD reached a low of 0.6030 last week. On Monday, the pair broke below that level with downside momentum, only to rebound on Tuesday and retest the 0.6030 level, along with the falling 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (blue line). Sellers leaned into that resistance and pushed the pair lower, driving it toward the 50% retracement of the rally from the May 12 low, which comes in near 0.5981.
Since then, the price has bounced and is once again testing the confluence of resistance near 0.6033—a zone that includes last week’s low, this week’s high, and the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart. This area marks a key decision point for both buyers and sellers.
A break above this zone with momentum would give buyers the upper hand and suggest a potential shift in short-term control. On the other hand, sellers could once again use this level to cap gains, with a move lower likely targeting the 50% retracement at 0.5981 once again.
For now, the market is waiting for a directional catalyst—the 0.6033 area is the battleground.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. -
USDJPY finds support at key moving average; eyes resistance at 38.2% retracement
The USDJPY moved lower during the early Asian session, with some pressure coming from broad dollar selling after a Wall Street Journal article highlighted growing division within the Federal Reserve. However, that dip was quickly met with buying interest, as the pair found support at the rising 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart above). That level held, keeping buyers in control and setting the stage for a rebound.
In the North American session, the price has extended to the upside. Taking a broader view of the 4-hour chart, key resistance looms near the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the 2025 high (set on January 10). That retracement level sits at 147.135, just below the weekly high of 147.175 reached yesterday. Also in play is a swing area between 147.01 and 147.338, which has acted as a ceiling in recent sessions.
A move above this resistance zone would open the door for a retest of the June high at 148.02, and potentially further toward the next swing area between 148.56 and 148.72.
The buying interest at the 100-hour moving average today was a key technical clue—stalling the downside and keeping the short-term bullish momentum alive. The next test will be whether buyers can sustain a break above the 38.2% retracement, which also capped price action earlier this week.
To maintain control, buyers need to break and stay above 147.135. Failing to do so could invite sellers back into the picture and shift the near-term tone back to neutral.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. -
EURUSD runs to the downside. Tests a key support target.
The EURUSD is under pressure and extending to the downside, falling to new lows not seen since June 26. That date marked a bullish breakout above a key swing area on the daily chart between 1.1663 and 1.1691—a zone that had previously served as strong support/resistance going back to April through November 2021, as highlighted by the red numbered circles on the above daily chart.
Since the June 26 breakout last month, price action had remained comfortably above that swing area, suggesting bullish control. However, today’s move lower challenges that narrative, as the pair pushes back below the lower edge of the 1.1663–1.1691 range, signaling potential weakness and a shift in sentiment.
Looking at the hourly chart, a break below 1.1663 opens the door to a series of downside targets. The next key support comes in at the 1.1614–1.1629 swing area, which served as a short-term floor earlier in the month. Below that, traders will be eyeing the 1.15688–1.15780 zone, followed by the more significant 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the move up from the April low, which sits at 1.1535.
Should bearish momentum continue, these levels may attract interest from both sellers looking to extend the move and buyers seeking potential support zones. For now, a break of the 1.1663 level would mark a technical warning sign for bulls and could shift the near-term bias back toward the downside.
Conversely, hold support here at 1.1663, and snap back above the 1.1693 would disappoint the sellers looking for the break back to the downside.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. -
AUDUSD buyers took a shot to new highs for the week, and above a swing area, but missed
The AUDUSD remains confined to a choppy, back-and-forth range, though with a slightly bullish tilt following this week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision. The central bank surprised markets on Tuesday by holding its benchmark rate unchanged, defying expectations for a 25 basis point cut. The surprise shifted sentiment in favor of the Aussie dollar, giving the AUDUSD pair a boost. However, that upside momentum is now being tested.
Today’s session saw buyers attempt a breakout above key resistance between 0.6535 and 0.6556 (see red numbered circles), but the move failed to hold, with price retreating back below the zone amid renewed USD buying during the U.S. session. That potential false break leaves bulls on the back foot, and the upside momentum in question.
Technically, both sides have had their chances—and both missed. Earlier this week, sellers had a window when the pair broke below the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (on Monday). But the RBA’s decision quickly undermined the bearish move, pushing price back above both the 100-bar and 200-bar MAs, which currently sit near 0.6522 and 0.6506 (see blue and green lines).
Now, the pair trades back within the swing area marked by prior highs and lows (see red numbered circles on the chart), and though the bias is more neutral in the short term, the price remains comfortably above both key moving averages—a point in favor of the bulls.
To reignite downside momentum, sellers would need to force a move back below the 100/200 MAs. A sustained break there would shift the bias lower and expose the 50% retracement of the June low, which comes in near 0.64809.
On the flip side, for bulls to regain control, the pair needs to push back above 0.6556 and then target the recent highs near 0.6590. A break above that zone would build stronger bullish conviction and open the door for further upside extension.
For now, AUDUSD remains in a tug-of-war, with central bank policy and technical barriers keeping the pair range-bound and indecisive. The next directional move may hinge on which side gains control around the 100- and 200-bar moving averages.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. -
USDCAD extends higher after holding key support; eyes retracement and swing targets
The USDCAD is moving higher in early North American trading helped by stronger initial jobless claims, and building on bullish momentum after a successful test of key downside support.
Last week, buyers leaned on the 1.3555 support level, which also held above the 2025 low at 1.35389. The strong bounce from that area marked a critical turning point and kept the broader bullish bias intact.
Adding to the bullish tone, the pair formed a corrective low within a key swing area between 1.3617 and 1.3633—a level that had previously acted as both support and resistance. Holding that area and rotating higher from it served as a strong technical clue that buyers were gaining confidence.
Today, price action has extended further to the upside, taking the pair back above both the 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart (currently near 1.3670–1.36835). Regaining these moving averages—especially after slipping below them earlier in the week—represents a shift in near-term control back to the buyers.
With the bullish momentum building, the high for the week at 1.37094 becomes the first key upside target. Just above that, the 38.2% retracement of the broader decline from the April high, which comes in at 1.37208, adds further technical significance. A break above this level would bolster the bullish case and open the door for further gains.
Beyond that, traders will be eyeing the 1.37498 to 1.3759 swing area. This zone has repeatedly acted as a ceiling in recent months (see red numbered circles), and a move above it would represent a more decisive shift toward a medium-term bullish breakout. A sustained push through this level could pave the way toward the next major resistance closer to 1.3800.
What would kill the bullish momentum?
A move back below the 200 and then 100 bar MAs on the 4-hour chart. That would disappoint the buyers in the USDCAD.
In summary, buyers have reasserted control after defending key downside levels and reclaiming broken moving averages. As long as the price holds above the moving averages and the recent corrective low, the upside remains favored, with 1.37094, 1.37208, and the 1.3759 area as the next major targets to watch.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.